Eslambolchi’s Law of Telecom Complexity

nospam@example.com (Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi) — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:55:03 -0400

One truism about today’s IP networks is that complexity is growing. Given this, a key question that should be asked by managers responsible for large IP networks is whether their network management is keeping pace with network complexity. In too many cases, the answer is no. Most network management tools only understand the network in discrete, device-level pieces, and “end-to-end” performance management tools don’t really look at network behavior, rather they monitor the symptomatic effects of network problems on end-user and service-level performance metrics.

What does network complexity mean? One simple way to look at it is that when there is a high degree of redundant links between various devices in the network, there are a correspondingly high number of alternate paths that traffic can take between any two points in the network. This corresponds to what can be called Eslambolchi’s Law of Telecom Complexity:

Telecom complexity, C, is calculated roughly as follows:
C ∝ (Number of protocol domains) X
(Number of networks per domain) X
(Avg. number of inter-network interfaces per network)
• Over time, T, the number of protocol domains increases proportional to T.
• The number of networks per domain increases proportional to T.
• The number of inter-network interfaces per network is proportional to the number of networks per domain.
Hence, C ∝ T^3

The problem is that these variable paths in increasingly complex IP networks can change at any given moment, based on dynamic recalculations performed by routers. This sort of variability and unpredictability is the enemy of cost-effective network operations. For example, troubleshooting takes much longer because it is very difficult and many times impossible to localize which part of the network to look at. Especially when problem analysis is done after the symptoms stop occurring, hours can be wasted analyzing the wrong part of the network. Not only is there a direct operations cost to lengthened troubleshooting processes, but when root causes can’t be identified, the underlying issues accumulate over time and impact network and service quality. Given that perceptions of service quality are one of the most important differentiators that customers apply to their service provider this is clearly an undesirable cycle to get stuck in.

For a long time, the complex routing dynamics in IP networks were considered too difficult to understand, but that has changed with the advent and now fairly wide-spread adoption of IP route analytics technology. The key innovation in route analytics is using the network’s live routing protocols as a source of real-time network management information. By recording and processing the network’s continuously updated routing information, route analytics tools create and maintain an extremely detailed, always accurate network topology which can be used interactively to analyze, troubleshoot and even model network dynamics.

Hundreds of service providers, mobile operators, cable MSOs, as well as large enterprises and government agencies are now doing just that by making their network management more intelligent with route analytics. Route analytics recorded history of routing and traffic dynamics can be used to analyze the actual paths of troubled service traffic for faster troubleshooting, rather than hunting and guessing, saving significantly on operations costs. Modeling and simulation capabilities of route analytics can be used to accurately understand how proposed routing and traffic changes would impact existing service traffic, and prevent costly service disruptions, before making changes. Route analytics can also be used to systematically audit carrier-sized networks to inventory out-of-policy routing conditions, identify vulnerable points in network architecture where a failure would cause a significant, negative impact on traffic, and find unused links and routers—expensive assets that can be profitably redeployed. The operational and capital savings from such intelligence can be truly significant.

In these days of economic constraints, it’s imperative to work smarter. Adding routing intelligence is a smart way to increase the leverage that network management tools and processes provide to operate networks and deliver services profitably.

Driving Telecom Growth Through Diagonal Convergence By Hossein Eslambolchi, Ph.D.

nospam@example.com (Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi) — Sun, 20 Aug 2006 03:07:00 -0400

Consolidation is a good thing in the telecommunications industry – whether you’re a service provider or equipment maker. New combinations like Sprint-Nextel, AT&T-SBC, Verizon-MCI, Lucent-Alcatel and Siemens-Nokia are much needed because they soak up damaging overcapacity and enhance technological synergies.
But these partnerships have a great deal more potential and can unlock huge value that goes beyond mere cost savings. Bottom-line efficiencies are just the beginning; they are necessary, yet not sufficient. And it will be a shame for shareholders if telecommunications executives do not extract the full financial richness that these tie-ups offer.

The key is to look beyond legacy products and systems. Meshing old technologies from two companies may cut costs, but it won’t turbo-charge revenues or productivity over the long haul – and I define meaningful productivity growth as 10x real GDP growth. So, after a telecom merger, it is essential to look to the future and ask how you can transform the entire newly blended business through innovation. R&D is crucial. And combining next-generation IP-based technologies is an excellent starting point.

Once the merged entity has pooled its intellectual property and developed an appealing and cutting-edge IP-based technology, the next step is monetizing this innovation. The best way to generate significant and recurring revenues is through diagonal convergence.

Diagonal convergence goes well beyond 20th-century-style mergers, in which two companies combine vertically to integrate respective product offerings or horizontally to amalgamate revenues and add scale, heft and market muscle.

The 21st century diagonal convergence model encourages a newly combined telecommunications company, for example, to actively shop its IP-based innovation and form lucrative partnerships with other telecommunications companies willing to license or purchase this state-of-the-art technology.

The new diagonal convergence can only work, though, if it is unencumbered by the rules and regulations of the 20th century. I believe the rate of innovation fostered by diagonal convergence will be inversely proportional to the amount of regulation it is forced to shoulder.

Another twist on diagonal convergence takes place when inter-industry IP-technology sales are consummated. For example, what’s to prevent Verizon-MCI from establishing an alliance with General Motors, which could take the newly formed telecommunications company’s IP-based innovation and install it so that customers can download gaming and entertainment in every GM automobile that rolls off the assembly line?

The revenue from this type of diagonal transaction could help Verizon quickly pay down the cost of its merger with MCI and stimulate the freshly minted entity’s revenues in a big way. For its part, General Motors could begin to differentiate itself from the competition and sell more vehicles without entering into an old-fashioned vertical partnership with foreign automobile makers.

The telecommunications industry – both service providers and equipment makers – has a unique opportunity to consolidate in a new and more enlightened way if it can move beyond the still important notion of bottom-line management and toward innovation-driven mergers focusing on IP.

If it can do this, it will be able to fully exploit the IP sextuple play, which will bring voice, data, video, wireless, gaming and sensory technology to consumers and companies in an effective and easy-to-use-way. And that, in turn, will help generate strong revenue and productivity growth that will benefit the global economy.

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Hossein Eslambolchi, Ph.D., is chairman of 2020 Venture Partners, which provides technology and operations consulting to private equity firms and venture capitalists in the area of telecommunications infrastructure. He was CIO and CTO of AT&T, as well as president of AT&T Labs, until 2006.

Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi blog

Eslambolchi’s Law of Telecom Complexity

Driving Telecom Growth Through Diagonal Convergence By Hossein Eslambolchi, Ph.D.